Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Inflation When? Inflation NOW

April 13, 2010 by  
Filed under Inflation or Deflation, Move

Inflation has already begun, so says Jeff Saut in his weekly missive for Raymond James. Quoting from a post on Bill Fleckenstein’s website Ask Fleck, he cites an importer who reports that “business is still terribly slow but inventories have been depleted to the point that shortages are occurring”…no one is (all that) busy but prices are literally skyrocketing. Smells like stagflation to me. Anyone who tells me that there is no inflation on the horizon is delusional and in for one hell of a shock.”

Saut points to annualized double digit inflation in India and China and sky rocketing commodity prices.

since January 2009 the price of copper is up ~185%, crude oil is better by ~118%, and rubber is higher by ~167%. Moreover, from August of 2009 until now hog prices have rallied ~75%

He firmly believes that the government’ s economic policy will lead to inflation. Says Saut:

To us, inflation is assuredly returning, yet the degree of inflation is unknowable. Why are we so sure inflation will return? It is because for decades that f our citizenry and our government. To wit, pay back the debt with “cheaper” dollars. Given the recent geometric rise of debt, we see only three ways out for our government: sovereign default (unimaginable); severe economic contraction (unlikely); or, currency debasement (read: inflation). We choose “door” number three as the most likely course.

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